Francona talked to Clay Buchholz about his next rehab start, which is scheduled for Friday at Durham, N.C., but did not go further than that in terms of his progression back to Boston. Francona was adamant over the weekend, though, that Buchholz is not headed for the bullpen, and the organization understands that the health of its pitchers is not a given - meaning there might be a spot in the rotation by the time Buchholz is healthy enough to come back. Or there might not.

Excerpt from this article in the Globe.

huh. So I guess Bucky is gonna be in the minors from now on unless someone is injured. Okay, so what does this mean? What is the starting pitching depth chart for the Sox this year?

Here’s my guess:

Will not lose their spots even to injury:
1. Beckett
2. Matsuzaka
3. Lester

Get to keep their jobs unless they are injured / completely melt down:
4. Colon
5. Wake

Waiting in the wings for the first opportunity to get (back) in:
6. Schilling
7. Bucholtz
8. Masterson

So….if you are young like B and M you don’t have to get too bent of shape about what happens this year….next year is another issue but for now I think both B and M would be fine in Triple A. Not happy mind you, but they are young enough to bide their time. Because of this (and his big game experience), I think Schilling gets first dibs on a spot in the rotation if one opens up - as long as he is ready to come back at the time.

But what happens if Colon doesn’t go down between now and July / August? What if Schilling rehabs and is ready to get back in the rotation and there isn’t a spot for him? Logically, you might think Lester gets bumped but I think the Sox are the point with Lester where they get with players who are figuring out who they are in the bigs. And when that happens, their M.O. is to stick with the kid and let him work it out. So even if Lester struggles I don’t think they ditch him. So…..does Wake get the shaft for the 79th time? Does he get sent to the pen? I just can’t imagine them doing this to him at this point in his career…but…what choice would they have? Go to a 6 man rotation? I doubt it.

So here’s my guess..one of the pitchers in the top 5 will have an “injury” right when Schilling is ready to make his comeback. Maybe it’ll be Beckett, Dice K, who knows…probably the guy who has pitched the most innings and needs a coupla week blow before the stretch run a la Beckett last summer. That will give the Sox a few weeks to let Schilling give it a try, then, if he’s moving in the right direction Wake gets bumped to the pen and away we go.

BTW, just for fun’s sake, here’s is my guess as to what the rotation will look like in 2009:
1. Beckett
2. Dice K
3. Lester
4. Bucholtz
5. Wake

Masterson is ready and gets the limited innings role of Bucholtz last year…

and in 2010:
1. Beckett
2. Dice K
3. Lester
4. Bucholtz
5. Masterson