I actually don’t dive into stats very much, but a couple have jumped out at me while I’ve been surfing the web and thinking this series.

Total runs scored: In head-to-head matchups, the Rays won 10 of 18 games, but the Red Sox scored 20 more total runs than Tampa in those games.  Rays won 6 games by 1 run.

Rays top 2 starters: Check out how the Rays starts and games 1 and 2 fared against the Sox this year.

James Shields - 2-2, 5.85 ERA vs. Boston
Scott Kazmir - 0-2, 9.00 ERA vs. Boston

What’s all that mean?  It means we definitely need to win at least one of these first two games.  The matchups favor us.  And we need to win a couple games with a cushion.  Not much in the winning formula is different than the best formula to beat the Angels.  Solid starting pitching.  Two out RBIs.  Productive outs to advance runners into scoring position.  This is what wins in the postseason.

But against the Rays, I would add stellar defense.  The Rays, quite simply, will not beat themselves like the Angles did.  They may not have the most all-star laden roster, but there is  no doubt that they are well coached and very well prepared.

And finally.  Pedroia.  He has been the straw that stirs the drink all year for this team.  A repeat of his performance against the Angels would mean doom.