OK, here we go. Opening day is imminent. The 25 man roster is set. So what should we be expecting? What should we be hoping. Here are some thoughts on every player.
Starting Pitchers
Josh Beckett
Man, this guy has a lot to prove. He’s a competitor. Probably a stubborn one, too. At this point in his career, he want to be seen as the guy who can deliver front line pitching and 15-20 wines every single year. Like Maddux or Smoltz or Schilling. Honestly, I’m expecting a Cy Young caliber season fro him.
Jon Lester
He was great in 2008. Comparisons to Andy Pettitte seem appropriate. But can we expect him to duplicate what he did last year. 16-6 with a 3.51 ERA. Yeah, I think so. I’m not buying the whole “he pitched too many innings last year so expect a drop off” argument
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Now this guy. I don’t expect as many wins. He had the ugliest 18 win season I’ve ever seen. He’ll probably pitch close to 180 innings and hopefully he’ll cut down on the walks. But around 12-14 wins is what I would expect from him. What we really need from Daisuke is a classic postseason performance. Two years and two postseasons in and we still have yet to see that from him.
Wild card in this whole thing? His participation in the World Baseball Classic.
Tim Wakefield
Timmy is a warrior. One that maxes out around 60 mph, but a warrior. I’m glad he’s on our team, but he’s really a regular season inning eater now. A won loss record around 10-10 is what I predict. But his success should be measured in innings pitched this year. If it’s around 200, then he has contributed. That number may be impacted by the surplus of starters the Sox have. There may be some bullpen time for him if everyone (especially Penny and Smoltz) stay healthy and productive.
But here’s the other thing. His days of starting postseason games are over.
Brad Penny
He’ll be starting out as the 5th starter, but he’s in the role previously filled by Wade Miller and Bartolo Colon. If we get 10 starts out of him, then his signing will be a success. If 7 of those are quality starts, even better.
I will say this. The opportunity for him is incredible. If he can pitch all year and have an impact of around 12-15 wins, he’ll be cashing in a ton next year for someone. And with a big raise. If that’s not worth working for, I don’t know what is.
John Smoltz
I can’t wait to see this guy on the mound at Fenway. What a perfect signing by Theo. The guy loves to talk pitching and will be the perfect role model for guys like Masterson and Bucholz. It’s like having Schilling around but without the bag of hot air that comes with it. What he provide the Sox this year will not be measurable. The talk has him being on track for June. But I hope it’s late June. I want to see him pitching in September and October. 15 starts. That what I would hope for. With 4 of those starts coming in October.
Relief Pitchers
Jonathan Papelbon
Just another year of 35 saves for him. I do worry about his approach to hitters. A little less 1st pitch fastballs (hitters will sit on it). And he seems to have a difficult time closing guys out when he’s got two strikes on them. Paps – it’s OK to waste one in the dirt when you’ve got the guy 0-2. I was worried about him being fatigued last September, but when October came he was lights out again. Still, it seems like his first half workload should be watched closely and hopefully the addition of guys like Saito will limit the need for back to back days.
I don’t expect the sox to be blowing guys out with 8 run outbursts on a regular basis. I expect more tight one run ballgames like 3-2 and 5-4. That meant the temptation to use Papelbon more to close out games will be tempting. Francona will need to trust people like Saito and Okajima to close things out at least once a week.
Hideki Okajima
More 7th inning appearances for him. There’s a lot of depth in the bullpen and he’s not exactly a make them miss kind of guy. He’ll be used all over the place.
Justin Masterson
By the end of the year, I expect Masterson to be used mostly in the 8th inning. But what he should really be used for is to come in and get ground balls for a key double play. Needs to work on pitching to lefties. Also expect a spot start or two early in the year.
Takeshi Saito
I’d like to say he’ll give us 8 saves this year. Closing the door once a week to give Papelbon more rest. But honestly, I have no idea what to expect. Of all the low risk signing made by Theo in the offseaon, this is the one that I think will continue to be injury prone in 2009. Hope to be wrong.
Ramon Ramirez
Will be sharing the 8th inning duties with Masterson by the end of the year. While Masterson will be the guy brought in to get a double play, Ramirez will be the guy brought in to strike someone out when there’s a runner on third with less than 2 outs. Totally thrilled by this acquisition.
Javier Lopez
Somehow, he’s put together solid numbers over the past couple of years. Yet, he never seems to be the lefty specialist the Sox want him to be. It seems that whenever he is brought into face a lefty, he fears the stike zone and walks a guy. I think bad luck catches up to him and he gets released by the all star break. Sorry. Would love to be wrong about him.
Manny Delcarmen
Another guy on thin ice, in my opinon. Done waiting for him to evolve into a solid setup guy. And quite honestly, he truly seems to excel pitching around the 6th or 7th inning. Seems to be lacking the confidence for the 8th. Unfortunately, modern baseball means that the bullpen is asked to pitch the 6th inning more and more these days. Delcarmen seems to be carving out his niche there. He’s also possible trade bait around the deadline, depending on how Tazwa and Daniel Bard progress in the early minors this year.
Starting Position Players
Jason Varitek
Don’t expect a huge offensive performance increase from last year. He’s slated to catch all the non-Wakefield starts. But I think by the end of the year, he’ll be catching 60% of the games instead of 80%. What I really hope that he cuts down on the strikeouts and is able to move runners along, have productive outs, etc. Very happy he is back with the Sox and his contribution is not measured in batting statistics. But the transition to a new full time catcher needs to start this year and be completed by the end of 2010.
Kevin Youklis
He will be the Sox MVP candidate this year. I’m expecting a HUGE year. The power continues to come. He’ll be in the AL top 10 of all the triple crown categories. Combined with gold glove defense.
Dustin Pedroia
Probably can’t duplicate what he did in 2008. But that’s more of testament to how good he was last year. He’s the future Red Sox captain. Will be among the lead leaders in doubles and runs scored.
Jed Lowrie
I think he’ll perform well enough to keep the starting SS job once Lugo returns. Expecting a solid .270 type of season with lots of doubles. Like Varitek, needs to cut down on the stikeouts.
Mike Lowell
Really, I just hope we get 140 games out of him. No idea what to expect. Looks like he’s being dropped in the lineup and will have excellent baserunners in Drew and Bay ahead of him. This will give him plenty of RBI chances. If he can stay healthy (and that’s a big if) he could easily get 100 RBI’s
JD Drew
I think JD Drew gets a bad rap. He has difficulty staying on the field, but when he’s on it…he’s good. No one runs the bases better than him and no one has a better eye than him. Really wish he could bat leadoff for the Sox. That’s one of the biggest reasons I wanted the Sox to sign Teixera. But since that didn’t happen, Drew needs to be in the middle of the lineup. If we can get 130 starts from Drew, it will be a success. Think he’ll pass Papi as the Sox hitter that comes through in the clutch most often. Expect him to bat around .290 or so with a killer on base percentage.
Jacoby Ellsbury
With Crisp gone, CF is completely his. Would really love to see him own the lead off spot, too. But I’m not sure that’s going to happen. It’s definitely the key to the sox offense. 60 or 70 steals isn’t out of the question for him, as long as he can draw some walks. If he has to be dropped in the order this year, the Sox will be fighting for the playoffs (or have to make a big trade at the deadline). If he can get on with regularity, the Sox will win the division.
Jason Bay
Will lead the Sox in homeruns. Around 35-40 of them. He’s going to have a big year and the Sox will have to pay big to keep him. His right handed bat will flourish at Fenway.
David Ortiz
The Sox really need him to hit around 40 home runs, but I don’t see the same power of years past being there. That doesn’t mean he can’t hit and be productive. I just think he needs to be trying to pull the ball less. If he’s comfortable hitting to all fields, 120 RBI’s will be easy for him. And if Ellsbury becomes an on base machine, that RBI total will be 135. Less homers, however. I expect the final number to be around 25. And it has nothing to do with Manny not being behind him. It has to do with Ortiz getting older.
The Bench
George Kottaras
Will be given every opportunity to show that he has a future role in the Sox catching solution and I think he’ll hit well enough to take some playing time from Varitek. Handling Wake’s knuckler? It won’t be a problem. He seems like the kind of guy that recognizes the opportunity in Boson and will work hard to take advantage of it.
Rocco Baldelli
I was against this signing. And I want to be wrong about him not being able to play back to back games with regularity. I’m OK with his signing now that Kotsay is also back (providing another outfiled option in case Drew gets hurt). As for what to expect – solid performance as the 4th outfielder. Will make all the right baseball plays and when he starts, we won’t be saying stuff like “Uh-oh, they gave Bay the day off.” Could be challenging Ellsbury for everyday time come September. What we should hope for most with Rocco is that his health actually allows that.
Mark Kotsay
The perfect bench player for the Red Sox. Was totally impressed with his play at 1B last year.
Julio Lugo
A wasted roster spot quite honestly. Has some serious athletic ability. It just doesn’t seem to translate into baseball ability. If Ellsbury falters, he may get a chance to play everyday SS and lead off. Perhaps the best case scenario is that situation happens, he does well enough to attract some interest, and then the Sox can package him with someone like Bowden for a future piece of the puzzle.
But what if he CAN produce? Sox would have the perfect roster with Lugo as the everyday (productive) SS and Lowrie as the utility guy.
Other names we’ll be hearing from this year
Lars Anderson
Expect only a cameo experience from him in the bigs this year. It is best if he can spend most of the year in Pawtucket, being prepared to be a major contributor next season.
Daniel Bard
I predict he’ll be part of the roster by July. Around the time the sox dump Lopez. I also think he’s our closer of the future
Clay Bucholz
Who knows. In a best case scenario, he spends the entire year making starts in Pawtucket. But we know how the season goes and how the sox like to give their starters a couple weeks on the DL in the mid season by being overly cautious with a small injury – all designed to give arms a rest. Given all that, he’ll probably end up making a handful of starts and I think he’ll be solid. Maybe he’s not a future ace. But if he’s a future #3 starter, that will be great.
Michael Bowden
I think he’s trade bait. In the Sox surplus of arms, his delivery makes him the guy I would most want Theo to use in acquiring a catcher of the future or a thumper for the middle of the lineup.